Timing Employment-Based Immigrant Visas
Guide last reviewed: 11/13/2026. Chart data check dates appear below.
Explore quarterly USCIS approval trends for EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 petitions.
Politics, Approval Trends, and CIL’s Working Timing Standard
The legal standards for employment-based immigrant petitions are established by law. Regrettably, immigration is also deeply political, and the way those standards are applied can change with political and policy priorities. In Charles International Law’s assessment, the politics of a particular moment can be as consequential to practical outcomes as the standards stated on paper.
We wish this were otherwise. Integrity requires us to be candid with our clients about those realities. We believe that responsible case planning must account for the adjudication environment as well as the legal requirements and the evidence supporting a petition.
CIL’s working timing standard is that, when a client’s case is ready and the client has flexibility about when to file, the best filing window is generally after the approval rate for the relevant petition type has increased in each of two consecutive fiscal-quarter comparisons. We therefore use two successive quarterly increases as a favorable timing signal in advising our clients.
We assess, with a reasonable degree of confidence, that this pattern indicates a more favorable adjudication environment and may reflect policy decisions within the Department of Homeland Security and USCIS that relax how evidentiary or adjudicative standards are applied. This is CIL’s working professional assessment of the signal. The quarterly figures alone do not identify which policy caused a change, establish that the legal eligibility requirements have changed, or guarantee the outcome of an individual petition.
Source: USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data. CIL checks official reports daily. The chart loads the latest verified results; source reporting periods and check dates are shown separately.
Using the Chart and Understanding the Approval Rate
Choose the preference category or subtype relevant to your case, add a comparison if useful, and select a time horizon. The chart identifies the current range of verified quarters and the date of the latest successful source check. The ten-year view leaves earlier periods visibly unfilled while comparable historical data is being verified.
For each reported quarter, the approval rate is approvals divided by approvals plus denials. For example, 80 approvals and 20 denials produce an 80% approval rate among those decisions. Receipts and pending petitions are not included in that denominator.
These are decisions made during a quarter, often on petitions filed earlier. They do not measure the eventual success rate of petitions filed during that quarter, the number of unique applicants, or the number of immigrant visas issued.
EB-1 includes E11, E12, and E13. EB-2 includes the separately reported E21 and NIW lines. EB-3 includes E31, E32, and EW3. The overall preferences already include their subtypes, and an overall preference rate can conceal very different subtype results. Compare the classification relevant to your case.
Understanding Two Consecutive Quarterly Increases
CIL’s working standard looks for an increase in each of the last two quarter-to-quarter comparisons for the particular classification relevant to your case. This requires three consecutive quarterly observations. For example, 60%, then 65%, then 70% qualifies. A single increase from 60% to 70% does not establish two successive increases.
We treat that sustained upward movement as a favorable timing signal and an indicator of potentially more receptive adjudication. Our reasonable degree of confidence describes our professional assessment of the signal; it is not a calculated statistical confidence level or an individualized probability of approval. Changes in the petitions being decided, processing priorities, and older case inventories can also affect the rate.
Use the signal alongside the number of decisions and the source report’s release date. Changes are expressed in percentage points: a rise from 60% to 65% is five percentage points. Missing observations break the two-increase signal, and a recently published report may describe decisions made months earlier.
Comparing Presidential Administrations
The chart’s shaded bands identify presidential terms so that you can examine the political context of changes in approval rates. CIL considers that context relevant to practical filing advice and uses the two-quarter signal to help assess whether the adjudication environment is becoming more favorable.
Inaugurations occur during a fiscal quarter, so a transition quarter can include decisions under two administrations. Petitions decided after a change in administration may have been filed before it. Policies, litigation, staffing, processing priorities, and case mix can all affect the figures. The bands help inform our assessment; the chart does not isolate the effect of a particular administration or policy decision.
A ten-year comparison remains our goal. The chart marks the available verified history. Unfilled periods limit comparisons across the earlier presidential terms shown on the ten-year axis.
Keep Your Case's Timing in View
When a filing-ready client has meaningful timing flexibility, CIL’s general advice is to favor a filing window after two successive quarterly increases in the relevant petition type’s approval rate. Applying that working standard still requires an assessment of the client’s evidence, eligibility, status and work authorization, employer plans, applicable deadlines, and the consequences of waiting.
Petition approval and visa availability are separate issues. Your preference category, country of chargeability, priority date, and the applicable Visa Bulletin chart can affect the next stage. We weigh the expected benefit of a more favorable adjudication environment against the case-specific costs of delay before recommending when to file.
Official Sources and Further Reading
USCIS publishes the source reports in its Immigration and Citizenship Data library. Its Understanding Our Data guidance explains reporting periods, withheld values, and revisions to historical figures. The chart links individual observations to their official reports.
For the separate question of visa availability, consult the Department of State's Visa Bulletin and USCIS's Visa Availability and Priority Dates guidance.
Related CIL guides: Employment-Based Immigration; The I-140 Process at Charles International Law; and Building a Case for the National Interest Waiver. This guide provides general information and does not replace advice on an individual case.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Are these visa approval rates?
They are USCIS Form I-140 petition approval rates. An approved petition does not itself issue an immigrant visa or grant permanent residence.
2. Which categories does the chart cover?
EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 totals, plus E11 (extraordinary ability), E12 (outstanding professors and researchers), E13 (multinational executives and managers), E21 (the advanced-degree line reported separately from NIW), NIW (national interest waiver), E31 (skilled workers), E32 (professionals with baccalaureate degrees), and EW3 (other or unskilled workers).
3. How much historical data is verified?
The chart displays the current number and range of verified quarters. Ten years is the intended viewing horizon; earlier comparable quarterly subtype observations have not yet been verified.
4. Does a rising rate mean that I should file now?
Under CIL’s working standard, two successive quarterly increases favor filing when your case is ready and you have timing flexibility. We assess that pattern as a reasonably confident indicator of a more favorable adjudication environment, while also considering eligibility, evidence, deadlines, status, visa availability, and the consequences of waiting.
5. What does “two successive increases” mean?
The rate rose across both of the last two adjacent quarter-to-quarter comparisons. The calculation uses three consecutive quarters and the unrounded rates. CIL uses that pattern as a favorable timing signal. The signal does not guarantee approval of an individual petition.
6. Why can the underlying data be months old?
USCIS publishes reports after the period they describe. The quarter covered, the report's posting date, and the date CIL checked for new reports are different dates.
7. Can historical figures change?
Yes. USCIS explains that system updates and later case actions can change previously reported figures. Later reports may revise earlier quarters.
8. Does the chart update itself?
Yes. CIL checks official USCIS reports once daily and publishes newly released or revised figures after validation. The chart loads the latest verified results when the page opens. “Reload latest verified data” retrieves the results of the latest daily check; it does not start another USCIS check. If an update fails, the chart retains verified figures and identifies the last successful check.
9. Does an I-140 approval mean that a green card is immediately available?
No. Visa availability and the requirements of adjustment of status or consular processing are separate from petition approval. Check the applicable Visa Bulletin and USCIS guidance for your circumstances.
10. Does a presidential term explain a change in approval rates?
CIL considers political and policy priorities relevant to how petitions are adjudicated. We assess sustained increases as an indicator that the agency may be applying standards more favorably. The chart helps examine that assessment, but cannot by itself identify a particular policy cause; filing-to-decision delays and case mix also matter.
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