Presumption of Future Persecution Based on Past Persecution
Date of Information: 12/08/2025
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I. Overview
Under U.S. asylum law, once an applicant proves that they suffered past persecution on account of a protected ground, they gain a powerful procedural advantage: a presumption of future persecution. That presumption shifts the burden to DHS to show, by a preponderance of the evidence, that conditions have changed or that safe internal relocation is available.
This page explains:
What qualifies as “past persecution” for purposes of the presumption
How the presumption operates under the regulations
How DHS can (and often fails to) rebut it
How the same framework applies, in modified form, to withholding of removal
Strategic practice tips for presenting and defending these claims
All discussion assumes a basic familiarity with asylum law (INA § 101(a)(42)(A); 8 C.F.R. §§ 208.13, 1208.13, 208.16, 1208.16).
II. Legal Framework
Asylum:
INA § 101(a)(42)(A), 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42)(A) (definition of “refugee”).
8 C.F.R. §§ 208.13(b)(1), 1208.13(b)(1): if an applicant establishes past persecution on account of a protected ground, “it shall be presumed” that the applicant has a well-founded fear of persecution.
Withholding of removal:
INA § 241(b)(3), 8 U.S.C. § 1231(b)(3).
8 C.F.R. § 1208.16(b)(1): past persecution creates a presumption that the applicant’s life or freedom would be threatened in the future on account of a protected ground.
Humanitarian asylum:
8 C.F.R. § 1208.13(b)(1)(iii) codifies “humanitarian” asylum based on (1) severe past persecution alone, or (2) risk of “other serious harm” notwithstanding changed conditions. Matter of Chen, 20 I. & N. Dec. 16 (B.I.A. 1989); Matter of L-S-, 25 I. & N. Dec. 705 (B.I.A. 2012).
The key point: once past persecution is established, the default is that the applicant wins on future fear unless DHS proves a regulatory rebuttal.
III. What Counts as “Past Persecution”?
“Persecution” is not defined in the statute, but BIA and circuit precedent draw some lines. It must involve serious harm, inflicted by the government or by private actors the government is unable or unwilling to control, and be “on account of” a protected ground.
A. Serious Physical Violence and Detention
Repeated beatings, torture, or severe physical abuse almost always qualify.
Multiple beatings and arrests for political activity or ethnicity have been held sufficient. See, e.g., Bace v. Ashcroft, 352 F.3d 1133 (7th Cir. 2003).
Prolonged detention with physical abuse or credible death threats clearly meets the threshold.
B. Sexual Violence and Gender-Based Harm
Courts treat rape and sexual assault as paradigmatic persecution.
Female genital mutilation (FGM) and threats of FGM are classic examples. See Matter of Kasinga, 21 I. & N. Dec. 357 (B.I.A. 1996); Matter of A-T-, 24 I. & N. Dec. 296 (B.I.A. 2007).
Repeated sexual assaults, threats of rape, and stripping or molestation in detention or during attacks have been recognized as persecution in multiple circuits. See, e.g., Visca Imelda v. U.S. Att’y Gen., 611 F.3d 724 (11th Cir. 2010).
C. Severe Psychological Harm and Threats
Serious death threats plus other forms of harm can rise to persecution. Courts look at the cumulative impact.
Krastev v. INS, 292 F.3d 1268 (10th Cir. 2002) (reversing BIA where threats, assaults, and economic pressure together met the standard).
Mukamusoni v. Ashcroft, 390 F.3d 110 (1st Cir. 2004) (past persecution found where Rwandan applicant suffered extreme trauma and loss of family during the genocide).
Threats alone are usually not enough unless extraordinarily menacing and immediate (e.g., repeated, credible threats from actors with a demonstrated capacity and intent to carry them out).
D. Targeted Economic Harm and Extortion
Economic mistreatment can constitute persecution when it is deliberate, targeted, and severe.
Confiscation of property, exclusion from employment, or extortion that deprives an applicant of a livelihood because of a protected ground can qualify. See, e.g., Kozulin v. INS, 218 F.3d 1112 (9th Cir. 2000).
Mere “economic disadvantage” or generalized poverty does not.
E. Persecution by Non-State Actors
Harms inflicted by militias, gangs, family members, or other non-state actors may still be persecution if the state is unable or unwilling to control them.
The Ninth Circuit’s formulation is influential: authorities may be “powerless to stop” private persecutors because of lack of capacity or pervasiveness of the persecution. Afriyie v. Holder, 613 F.3d 924 (9th Cir. 2010), overruled on other grounds by Bringas-Rodriguez v. Sessions, 850 F.3d 1051 (9th Cir. 2017) (en banc).
The Eleventh Circuit has likewise emphasized careful analysis of whether police response was meaningful or merely pro forma. Imelda, 611 F.3d at 728–29.
F. Domestic and Family-Based Violence
Where the government systematically fails to protect victims of domestic violence, honor crimes, or forced marriage, courts have recognized persecution.
Kone v. Holder, 620 F.3d 760 (7th Cir. 2010) (addressing FGM of children and derivative harms to parents).
Matter of A-R-C-G-, 26 I. & N. Dec. 388 (B.I.A. 2014) (domestic violence; subsequently limited but not wholly erased by later AG/BIA actions).
G. Pattern or Practice and Group-Based Persecution
Applicants can prove past persecution either through their own direct experience or by showing they were subjected to a pattern or practice of persecution targeting a protected group. Pattern-or-practice findings have been made for groups like ethnic Chinese Christians in parts of Indonesia and certain political dissident populations. See, e.g., Visca Imelda, 611 F.3d 724; Tegegn v. Holder, 702 F.3d 1142 (8th Cir. 2013).
H. Persecution Experienced Through a Close Family Member
Harm inflicted on a spouse, child, parent, or similarly close family member can constitute persecution of the applicant when:
the persecutors targeted the family member because of a protected characteristic shared with the applicant,
the harm to the family member was intended—directly or indirectly—to coerce, punish, intimidate, or retaliate against the applicant, or
the cumulative impact of severe harm to a family member causes the applicant to suffer serious emotional, psychological, or societal harm that rises to the level of persecution.
Courts have repeatedly recognized that persecution is not limited to direct physical harm against the applicant. The inquiry is functional: whether the persecutor’s actions, taken as a whole, amount to persecution of the applicant.
Key principles reflected in controlling case law:
Targeted harm to a family member can support the applicant’s own past-persecution claim when it is part of the same pattern of targeting, motive, or retaliation.
Solomon v. Gonzales, 454 F.3d 1160, 1163–65 (10th Cir. 2006) (threats, political targeting, and disappearance of applicant’s brother supported applicant’s own persecution claim where the family was collectively targeted).Where the persecutor’s actions are intended to punish or pressure the applicant by harming relatives, the applicant is deemed the true target of the persecution.
Courts consider the persecutor’s intent and whether the harms were “functionally equivalent” to harming the applicant.Family-tied persecution is particularly persuasive in political-opinion, ethnicity, clan, or caste cases, because persecutors often treat the family as a single political, ethnic, or ideological unit.
This is especially so where clans, tribes, political parties, or militias use collective punishment or retaliatory violence—practices repeatedly recognized in cases such as Ndom v. Ashcroft, 384 F.3d 743 (9th Cir. 2004), where harm to multiple family members demonstrated the group-based nature of the persecution.Severe harm to a close family member can contribute to a “cumulative harm” finding, elevating the applicant’s own experiences from harassment to persecution.
Federal courts routinely evaluate persecution as a totality, not incident by incident.
See, e.g., Krastev v. INS, 292 F.3d 1268, 1275–77 (10th Cir. 2002) (cumulative acts, including harm to family, must be considered together).The state’s inability or unwillingness to protect the applicant may be inferred through its failure to protect the family, particularly in cases involving politically targeted killings, clan-based reprisals, or gender-based violence.
Where the government fails to protect one family member, courts often conclude it will not protect another.
In practice, persecution of close relatives is most likely to satisfy the past-persecution standard when:
the family member’s harm was severe (e.g., killing, kidnapping, torture, rape),
the family was targeted for the same protected reason as the applicant,
the applicant witnessed or was directly impacted by the harm, and
the persecutor’s motive or messaging explicitly implicated the applicant (e.g., “your family will pay,” “this is what happens to people like you,” etc.).
Strategic Note:
When building the record, practitioners should document:
the applicant’s relationship to the harmed family member,
the persecutor’s motive and statements,
the broader pattern of family-targeted persecution in the region or conflict, and
the applicant’s resulting psychological harm.
Courts treat this as compelling evidence of persecution—especially in countries where political factions, extremist militias, or clans use family-based reprisals as a primary tool of social control.
Note: Each of the categories above—political violence, gender-based harm, domestic violence, FGM, gang and cartel violence, and pattern-or-practice claims—is covered in more detail in separate articles within the Charles International Law Research Library.
IV. The Presumption: How Past Persecution Shifts the Burden
Once an applicant establishes past persecution on account of a protected ground, the regulations require a specific two-step analysis:
Finding of past persecution.
The IJ must make an explicit finding whether the applicant has or has not suffered past persecution. Matter of D-I-M-, 24 I. & N. Dec. 448, 451 (B.I.A. 2008).
Application of the presumption and DHS’s burden.
If past persecution is found, the IJ must apply the regulatory presumption that the applicant has a well-founded fear of future persecution.
DHS then bears the burden, by a preponderance of the evidence, of proving either:
Fundamental change in circumstances, or
Reasonable internal relocation.
See 8 C.F.R. §§ 208.13(b)(1)(i)(A)–(B), 1208.13(b)(1)(i)(A)–(B); Matter of N-M-A-, 22 I. & N. Dec. 312, 317–18 (B.I.A. 1998).
Several circuits have reversed where the agency skipped or muddled this sequence:
Antipova v. U.S. Att’y Gen., 392 F.3d 1259, 1264–66 (11th Cir. 2004) (remand where BIA failed to decide past persecution and thus failed to apply presumption properly).
Makadji v. Gonzales, 470 F.3d 450, 458 (2d Cir. 2006) (vacating denial of withholding for Mauritanian applicant where agency neglected to recognize and apply past-persecution presumption).
Niang v. Mukasey, 511 F.3d 138, 148–49 (2d Cir. 2007) (stress on government’s burden to prove fundamental change or relocation once past persecution is established).
If the IJ never says, “I find that the respondent has suffered past persecution,” you have an immediate issue for appeal.
V. Rebutting the Presumption: DHS’s Limited Options
After past persecution is found, DHS has only two real ways to rebut the presumption: fundamental changed circumstances or reasonable internal relocation.
A. Fundamental Change in Circumstances
Under 8 C.F.R. §§ 208.13(b)(1)(i)(A), 1208.13(b)(1)(i)(A), DHS must show that country conditions have changed so fundamentally that the applicant no longer has a well-founded fear of harm from any persecutor.
The analysis must compare the applicant’s actual past harm and persecutor to current conditions—not just rely on generic State Department boilerplate. See Niang, 511 F.3d at 148–49.
Matter of N-M-A-, 22 I. & N. Dec. at 317–18, emphasizes that even if one faction or regime falls, the applicant may still have a well-founded fear from new actors.
Courts have repeatedly reversed where the agency:
Cites generic improvements without engaging with the applicant’s specific profile;
Treats isolated elections or peace accords as automatically dispositive; or
Ignores credible evidence that the same or similar persecutors continue to operate. See, e.g., Makadji, 470 F.3d at 458.
B. Internal Relocation
DHS can also try to rebut by proving that the applicant could reasonably relocate within their country. 8 C.F.R. §§ 208.13(b)(1)(i)(B), 1208.13(b)(1)(i)(B); 208.13(b)(3).
Key points:
Burden: When past persecution is established and the persecutor is the government or government-sponsored, relocation is presumed unreasonable; DHS must prove otherwise. When the persecutor is a non-state actor, the burden is technically shared, but in practice DHS still must present meaningful evidence.
Standard: Relocation must be both safe and reasonable, considering factors like civil strife, geographic limitations, social and cultural constraints, family ties, and past experiences. Matter of D-I-M-, 24 I. & N. Dec. at 451–52.
Evidence: Courts disfavor vague statements like “you could move to the capital” without specific proof. See Afriyie, 613 F.3d at 935–36 (remanding to ensure correct burden and regulatory factors were actually applied); Imelda, 611 F.3d at 728–29 (criticizing over-reliance on State Department reports ignoring individual evidence).
When DHS argues relocation, ask: “Exactly where, under what conditions, and with what realistic prospects for safety and survival?”
VI. Humanitarian Asylum Based on Past Persecution Alone
Even if DHS successfully rebuts the presumption of future persecution, the applicant may still win asylum on humanitarian grounds.
Under 8 C.F.R. § 1208.13(b)(1)(iii), there are two tracks:
Atrocious past persecution with continuing impact
Following Matter of Chen, the BIA recognizes asylum where past persecution was so severe that return would be inhumane even without current risk.
The Board has applied this in cases involving genocide, long-term imprisonment, torture, and brutal sexual and physical abuse. See Matter of Chen, 20 I. & N. Dec. 16 (B.I.A. 1989); Matter of L-S-, 25 I. & N. Dec. 705 (B.I.A. 2012); Matter of N-M-A-, 22 I. & N. Dec. 312 (B.I.A. 1998).
“Other serious harm” upon return
Even if persecution on a protected ground is unlikely, an applicant can qualify if they face a reasonable possibility of other serious harm—for example, life-threatening generalized violence, extreme medical deprivation, or severe psychological trauma triggered by return. Matter of L-S-, 25 I. & N. Dec. at 713–15.
Practically, humanitarian arguments are strongest where:
The applicant suffered extreme past harm (torture, rape, mutilation, or prolonged detention); and
The record shows ongoing physical or psychological sequelae (PTSD, disability, community ostracism, etc.).
VII. Withholding of Removal: The Parallel Presumption
For withholding, the standard is higher—“more likely than not” that life or freedom will be threatened—but the past-persecution presumption is structurally similar.
8 C.F.R. § 1208.16(b)(1) provides that proof of past persecution on account of a protected ground “creates a presumption that the applicant’s life or freedom would be threatened” in the future.
DHS bears the burden to rebut by showing fundamental change or reasonable relocation, mirroring the asylum framework.
Key cases:
Antipova, 392 F.3d at 1264–66 (11th Cir. 2004) (remanding for failure to apply presumption properly under withholding standard).
Makadji, 470 F.3d at 458 (2d Cir. 2006) (remand where IJ neglected to put burden on government once past persecution was established).
Afriyie, 613 F.3d 924; Imelda, 611 F.3d 724 (emphasizing careful analysis of state “unable or unwilling” and relocation issues).
Unlike asylum, however, humanitarian withholding does not exist: if the presumption is rebutted and future risk falls below “more likely than not,” withholding fails.
VIII. Practitioner Strategy and Checklist
When you intend to rely on the presumption of future persecution, structure the case around the following moves:
Lock in an explicit past-persecution finding.
Force the IJ to state on the record whether past persecution occurred. Cite Matter of D-I-M-, 24 I. & N. Dec. 448 (B.I.A. 2008), and Antipova, 392 F.3d 1259, if the IJ tries to skip straight to “future fear.”
Document the harm comprehensively.
Treat past persecution as a fact-intensive narrative: dates, locations, perpetrators, methods, injuries, psychological impact, and aftermath.
Corroborate where reasonably available: medical records, police reports, NGO reports, witness declarations, photos, and country-conditions evidence. Cases like Mukamusoni, 390 F.3d 110, and Khan v. Mukasey, 541 F.3d 55 (1st Cir. 2008), underscore how over- or under-emphasis on corroboration can decide the case.
Tie each harm to a protected ground and to state complicity or failure.
Explicitly connect the dots between motive, group membership, and government inability or unwillingness to protect, using the Afriyie line of cases as a model for analyzing non-state actors.
Force DHS to carry its regulatory burden.
On fundamental change, insist on individualized analysis linking new conditions to the applicant’s specific risk profile. Generic claims of “democratization” or “improved human rights” are not enough under Niang and Makadji.
On relocation, demand specificity: where, how, with what resources, and why relocation is actually safe and reasonable under 8 C.F.R. § 208.13(b)(3).
Preserve humanitarian asylum as a fallback.
If there is any realistic chance the IJ will find changed circumstances, lay the groundwork for humanitarian asylum with detailed testimony and expert evidence on the severity and lasting effects of the past persecution. Cite Chen, L-S-, and N-M-A-.
For withholding, mirror the analysis but emphasize the higher standard.
Argue that if the presumption is not rebutted, the “more likely than not” threshold is satisfied almost by definition. Use Antipova and Makadji to show that courts expect the same disciplined application of the presumption in withholding cases.
IX. Conclusion
The presumption of future persecution based on past persecution is one of the most powerful tools in the asylum practitioner’s arsenal. But it only helps if:
You prove past persecution with specificity;
You force the agency to acknowledge and apply the presumption; and
You hold DHS to its burden on changed circumstances and relocation.
When used correctly—and backed by rigorous factual development and targeted country-conditions evidence—the presumption can convert a close or “credibility-only” case into a strong, appeals-proof grant of asylum or withholding.
Need Help with an Asylum Claim Based on Past Persecution?
The presumption of future persecution can decide the outcome of an asylum case—if it is developed and argued correctly. Book a consultation to assess your eligibility and strengthen your claim.
Frequently Asked Questions: Presumption of Future Persecution in U.S. Asylum Law
1. What is the presumption of future persecution in asylum law?
When an applicant proves they suffered past persecution on account of a protected ground, U.S. regulations presume they will be persecuted again if returned. This shifts the burden to the Department of Homeland Security to prove either fundamental changes in the home country or that the applicant can safely and reasonably relocate internally.
2. What counts as “past persecution”?
Past persecution includes serious harm such as beatings, torture, rape, credible death threats, severe economic deprivation, or prolonged harassment tied to a protected ground. Harm by non-state actors also counts if the government is unable or unwilling to control them.
3. Do threats alone qualify as persecution?
Yes, in some circumstances. Repeated, credible, and targeted threats—especially from actors with a history of violence—may constitute persecution when considered cumulatively with other harm.
4. Can persecution of a family member count as persecution of the applicant?
Yes. If the persecutor targets a spouse, child, parent, or sibling to intimidate, retaliate against, or punish the applicant, courts may treat the applicant as having suffered persecution. Harm to family members may also establish cumulative persecution or pattern-or-practice targeting.
5. What does DHS have to prove to rebut the presumption?
DHS must show, by a preponderance of the evidence, either (1) a fundamental change in circumstances eliminating the risk of persecution, or (2) that the applicant can safely and reasonably relocate to another part of the country. General improvements or vague country reports are not enough.
6. What qualifies as a “fundamental change in circumstances”?
A fundamental change must meaningfully alter the conditions that created the original persecution. For example, a persecuting regime must lose power in a real, durable way. Cosmetic reforms, elections, or isolated improvements do not automatically rebut the presumption.
7. What is “internal relocation,” and when is it considered reasonable?
Internal relocation means DHS claims the applicant can move to another part of the home country to avoid persecution. To succeed, DHS must show both safety and reasonableness, considering factors such as security, housing, livelihood, social constraints, and family support.
8. Does the presumption apply in withholding of removal cases too?
Yes. In withholding cases, past persecution creates a presumption that the applicant’s life or freedom would be threatened. The government bears a similar burden to rebut, though the overall standard is higher (“more likely than not”).
9. What if DHS successfully rebuts the presumption?
Even if the government proves changed circumstances or relocation, applicants may still qualify for humanitarian asylum if their past persecution was especially severe or if they would face other serious harm upon return.
10. How does the presumption affect my asylum strategy?
Establishing past persecution can be outcome-determinative. It shifts the burden of proof, strengthens credibility arguments, and often makes DHS’s rebuttal extremely difficult. A well-developed past-persecution record is one of the most powerful tools in asylum litigation.
11. Can I still win asylum if I do not have documentation of past persecution?
Yes. Applicants can rely on credible testimony, corroboration “reasonably available,” and detailed country-conditions evidence. Federal courts have repeatedly held that the absence of documentation does not defeat a credible past-persecution claim.
12. How does the presumption interact with harm by gangs or cartels?
If the harm is on account of a protected ground (e.g., political opinion, PSG membership) and the government is unable or unwilling to control the gang or cartel, past persecution may be found, triggering the presumption. Relocation is rarely reasonable when the persecutor is a nationwide organization.
13. Can the government argue I am safe because I lived somewhere else temporarily?
Short-term survival in another region does not prove long-term safety or reasonableness of relocation. Courts require evidence of sustained, realistic safety—not speculative or temporary conditions.
14. Does the presumption help with cases involving LGBTQ+ applicants?
Yes. If an LGBTQ+ applicant suffered past persecution, the presumption applies. In many countries, widespread homophobic violence or state failure to protect makes DHS’s rebuttal very difficult.
15. Do children benefit from the presumption the same way adults do?
Yes. Children may establish past persecution based on harms they experienced directly or witnessed, and the presumption applies fully. Harm to a child also strengthens the parent’s claims.
16. What if my persecutor is no longer alive?
If other members of the same group, faction, militia, political party, or social actor still operate, DHS must still prove a meaningful reduction of risk. The death of a single persecutor is not automatically a fundamental change.
17. Can psychological trauma alone meet the persecution standard?
In some cases, yes—especially where the trauma stemmed from severe threats, witnessing extreme violence, sexual violence, or forced family separation. Courts consider psychological harm as part of cumulative persecution.
18. What if my past persecution was many years ago?
Age of the harm does not extinguish the presumption. DHS still must prove fundamental change. Courts routinely recognize that long-standing ethnic hatred, political vendettas, and clan-based violence do not disappear simply because time has passed.
19. Is the presumption automatic if the IJ finds past persecution?
Yes. The regulations require the IJ to apply it. Failure to do so is legal error and grounds for appeal.
20. Should I consult an attorney about using the presumption in my case?
Absolutely. The presumption is one of the strongest protections in asylum law—but only if properly documented, argued, and preserved. An experienced asylum practitioner can determine whether your past harm qualifies and how best to structure the case.
Other Helpful Resources:
See Also:
CIL Guide to the Circumvention of Lawful Pathways Rule
CIL Guide to the CLP Family Unity Exception
CIL Guide to Questioning Models for Asylum Seekers
CIL Guide to What Constitutes Torture
CIL Guide to Psychological Abuse as Persecution